FFODC Previews The Chiefs

WHAT Skins (2-1) vs Chiefs (3-0)
WHERE Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
WHEN Monday, Oct 2 8:30 PM
THE LINE Skins +7
TV ESPN
WEATHER H: 86, L: 70  Mostly Sunny

 

Head man Andy Reid, OC Matt Nagy, and former OC Brad Childress share seven decades of play calling experience between them and all those offensive neurons come together to form a grab bag of philosophies including but not limited to option, west coast and spread.

On the personnel side, Kansas City outfits a roster with two 6’7 tight ends, each at a lanky 230 pounds.  They also deploy a WR corps with three guys listed at 5’9, 5’9, and 5’10 who play all the skill positions.  They are rolling with a perimeter that values speed and length over power and size.  Plus there is Kelce.

Put that scheme and personnel together and out comes the #1 ranked offense in DVOA through 3 weeks and a rushing attack that leads the NFL with 6.8(!) yards per attempt.

Run Defense vs the Chiefs

Instead of asking those lanky and smurfy perimeter guys to block, KC would rather read the defensive ends on short yardage:

This personnel in a nutshell: instead of wear you down, they force you to make a choice.  Then they out-athlete you with speed and length.  Their success stems from freezing contain and doubling the interior lineman to the inside backers.

Versus Our Nickel:  Our best line features Jonathan Allen and Matt Ioannidis, with those two in the game teams haven’t done much to move the ball.  With Ziggy Hood inserted into the line, who plays shaded over the center, the Chiefs would have a better match up trying to run their outside zone game.

Versus Our 3-4:  Here is where it can get dicey.  Outside zone is their run of choice and Stacey McGee has been struggling this season at holding the line against it.  Kerrigan has bailed him out in the past, but Kansas City can freeze our ends with bootlegs and end-arounds attached to all their runs:

Key Matchups:

Stacy McGee vs BLUDGEON

Tomsula has been earning every cent of his paycheck but his biggest roadblock remains getting more production out of McGee. At 340 pounds and 25 million dollars he should be drawing double teams and freeing up linebackers behind him.  This week with Kansas City cooking up schemes to freeze contain, McGee could be without help. Look for outside zone runs to cut back his way.

Mason Foster vs HIS SHOULDER

Kansas City’s offensive line gets to the second level in a hurry, our inside backers will have to shed and dodge 300 pounders on the regular.  Zach Brown has been a killer in run support, his counterpart is where the question marks pop up.  Spaight has struggled with tackling and Will Compton seems over-matched for NFL competition.  If Foster can’t go, somebody will have to play the best game of their career.

Pass Defense vs the Chiefs

Mesh.

Mesh

Mesh:  The Chiefs love it.  They ran it a dozen times against New England before Belichick finally started jamming their receivers.  It’s on tape but they continue to roll it out, and when they run it Kelce is the the point man who will try to “set the mesh.”  He’s the first guy through and normally a speedy smurf WR will come underneath him hoping the traffic will clog defenders and free him into the open field.  If you see us roughing up Kelce at the line when he is lined up as a receiver, this is probably why.  We don’t want to let him get to the criss-cross point first and let him “set the mesh.”

Wheel/Out the Backfield: The first two weeks of the season exposed our linebackers’ underneath coverage.  For one, they couldn’t find their zone and secondly, they had a hard time tracking their receiver.  The 69-yarder McVay dialed up was designed to exploit our underneath coverage.  Oakland was content leaving our backers alone and ran bland routes versus our trifecta of shutdown corners.

I’m thinking Kansas City will lean towards McVay’s plan.  Keep your eye on the RB as he shifts over to the 3 receiver side, guaranteeing he would be matched up with a linebacker:

Notice #53 bailing to cover the flat and having to fight through traffic.  That is exactly the kind of scheme that could put us in a pickle.

Last week we helped our linebacker coverage issues by blitzing less.  That might help some Monday night but, I mean:

That is speed maven De’Anthony Thomas lined up at RB and he draws a linebacker in coverage.  He runs a similar route that burned Foster two weeks ago.  Alex Smith missed this read, but it was open.

And when they put a full time RB back there, they attack linebackers all the same:

Key Matchups:

Linebackers vs Whoever is lined up at RB

Zach Brown has the speed to handle himself, but two linebackers in the game could be asking for trouble.  If their was ever a game to break out a Dime package this would be it.  Every time a RB fires out the backfield for a route, pray.

Defensive Backs vs Smurf Speed

Norman, Breeland and Fuller shut down a twin tower duo last week but this week they face smaller and shiftier guys that can fly.

Predictions

  • KC loves them some WR screens.  I bet they can’t help themselves, try it once or twice, and accumulate 0 yards.
  • We break out the Dime
  • Someone from the backfield breaks one long.  On a catch.
  • Ioannidis and Allen get 40 snaps minimum.

Skins 28-27.

Elsewhere

 

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