FFODC Previews The Giants

Credit: Evan Pinkus via AP
WHAT  Skins (4-6) vs Giants (2-8)
WHERE  FedEx Field, Hyattsville, MD
WHEN  Thanksgiving Day, 8:30 PM ET
THE LINE  Skins -7 (O/U: 44.5)
WEATHER  H: 46 L: 29, Mostly Cloudy

DVOA Rankings

Skins Defense Giants Offense
Overall 19 21
Run 18 25
Pass 16 15

(Football Outsiders)

Run Defense vs The Giants

Center Brett Jones can remove guys from the line with man blocking and inside zone double teams.  Here he is torquing his man and sealing out on Power:

He can also climb to the second level and locate backers accurately, here he is on Inside Zone:

Jones has earned top grades with PFF in two of the last three weeks, coming in second against the 49ers and  tops against the Rams:

[Jones] was able to move the Tulane product consistently on double teams, opening up large running lanes early in the game in particular. He was also perfect in pass protection on 42 dropbacks.

Ioannidis is tough to move but if Jones can get positioning on Hood that would open up Play Action for Eli who desperately needs it since he’s struggled when put under pressure.

Key Matchup:


With McClain out and Lanier showing he doesn’t hold up well against the run, we need Hood to handle the interior.  He excels against sideline to sideline runs, but against stronger lines that like to run vertical (Dallas) he has struggled.

Pass Defense vs The Giants

With his top wideouts on IR, Eli has dinked and dunked to the result of 6.25 Yards Per Attempt which is good for 29th in the league:

Week 1:

[Eli] completed just four passes targeted further than 10 yards downfield and nearly 50 percent of his passing yards game after the catch.

Week 7:

Manning attempted 11 throws on the afternoon that traveled at least 10 yards down field in the air, he completed just three of them for a total of 32 yards.

Week 10:

Eli was very good when avoiding deep passes, only having two incompletions on passes that were thrown less than 20 yards downfield.

Last Week:

he took what the Chiefs were giving him and didn’t make many dangerous passes.

It sounds like Spaight and Brown will be handling coverage duties as much as Norman, Fuller and Breeland will.  We could see a lot more Cover 2 packages which would position our Corners underneath, however that would leave the seam vulnerable for TE Evan Engram who has been the main beneficiary of the Giants’ depleted receiving corps:

Against Denver:

Eli Manning had a 150.0 passer rating when targeting Engram. He still has some work to do as a run blocker, but that’s probably less important right now with their lack of skill players.

Against Seattle:

Engram hauled in 6-of-10 targets and gained 43 of his 60 yards after the catch. Manning had a 110.4 passer rating when targeting the first-round pick.

Engram matched up against our safeties looks like the most obvious path to a big play.

Key Matchups:


With Nicholson out DHall and DJ should get the lion’s share of snaps. The balance of power tips in our favor if Preston Smith and Ryan Kerrigan can pressure Eli.


Eli likes to get the ball out quick.  Good news: DJ has been donning the Turnover Chain for the last two weeks, perhaps we get a few Robber coverage calls?

Boo if:

  • Engram is wide open down the seam
  • Brett Jones is putting dents in the middle of our D-Line
  • Eli is somehow completing passes longer than 10 yards


  • Smith and Kerrigan BLUDGEON their Tackles and Tight Ends.
  • Hood, Ion and McGee don’t get moved against inside zone runs
  • We get a turnover

Three Predictions

  1. Eli finishes under 5 YPA
  2. Smith and Kerrigan combine for 3 sacks.
  3. Spaight or Brown get an interception.

On offense: Washington has shown they can score against any defense regardless of injuries.  On defense: if Ioannidis can make it the whole way, our chances of winning are trending towards good.  I smell a blowout but the TNF football Gods have shown us that anything can happen.

Skins 27-16.

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